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DEPARTMENT OF LAND CONSERVATION AND DEVELOPMENT









 

DIVISION 32
POPULATION FORECASTS
660-032-0000
Purpose and Applicability
(1) The rules in this division provide
standards and procedures to implement ORS 195.033 to 195.036 and statewide planning
Goals regarding population forecasts for land use planning purposes.
(2) The rules in this division
do not apply to a review of a final land use decision or periodic review work task
adopted by a local government and submitted to the Department of Land Conservation
for review under ORS 197.626 or 197.633 prior to the effective date of this rule.
Stat. Auth.: ORS 197.040 &195.033(10)
Stats. Implemented: ORS 195.033,
195.036 & OL 2013 Ch. 574, Sec. 3
Hist.: LCDD 1-2015, f. &
cert. ef. 3-25-15
660-032-0010
Definitions
(1) For purposes of this division, the
definitions in ORS 197.015 and the Statewide Land Use Planning Goals (OAR chapter
660, division 15) apply, except as provided in sections (4) and (8) of this rule.
(2) “Final Forecast”
means the final population forecast issued by the Portland State University Population
Research Center (PRC) for land use purposes as required by ORS 195.033 and as provided
in OAR 577-050-0030 to 577-050-0060.
(3) "Initiates" means that the
local government either:
(a) Issues a public notice specified
in OAR 660-018-0020, including a notice to the department, for a proposed plan amendment
that concerns a subject described in 660-032-0040(2); or
(b) Receives the Director’s
approval, as provided in OAR 660-025-0110, of a periodic review work program that
includes a work task concerning a subject described in 660-032-0040(2).
(4) “Local Government”
means a city, county or Metro.
(5) “Metro” means
a metropolitan service district organized under ORS chapter 268.
(6) "Metro boundary" means the
boundary of a metropolitan service district.
(7) “PRC” means
the Portland State University Population Research Center.
(8) “Special district”
means any unit of local government, other than a city, county or metropolitan service
district formed under ORS chapter 268, authorized and regulated by statute and includes
but is not limited to water control districts, domestic water associations and water
cooperatives, irrigation districts, port districts, regional air quality control
authorities, fire districts, school districts, hospital districts, mass transit
districts and sanitary districts.
(9) "Urban area" means the land
within an urban growth boundary.
(10) “Urban Growth Boundary”
shall have the meaning provided in ORS 197.295(7).
Stat. Auth.: ORS 197.040 &195.033(10)
Stats. Implemented: ORS 195.033,
195.036 & OL 2013 Ch. 574, Sec. 3
Hist.: LCDD 1-2015, f. &
cert. ef. 3-25-15
660-032-0020
Population Forecasts for Land Use
Planning
(1) A local government with land use jurisdiction
over land that is outside the Metro boundary shall apply the most recent final forecast
issued by the PRC under OAR 577-050-0030 through 577-050-0060, when changing a comprehensive
plan or land use regulation that concerns such land, when the change is based on
or requires the use of a population forecast, except that a local government may
apply an interim forecast as provided in 660-032-0040.
(2) A local government within
the Metro boundary shall apply the Metro forecast described in OAR 660-0032-0030
when changing a regional framework plan, comprehensive plan or land use regulation
of the local government, when the change is based on or requires the use of a population
forecast.
(3) When a state agency or special
district adopts or amends a plan or takes an action which, under Statewide Planning
Goal 2 or other law, must be consistent with the comprehensive plan of a local government
described in section (1) of this rule, and which is based on or requires the use
of a population forecast, and if the local government has not adopted the most recent
PRC final forecast as part of the plan, the most recent PRC final forecast shall
be considered to be the long range forecast in the comprehensive plan, except as
provided in OAR 660-032-0040.
(4) When applying a PRC forecast
for a particular planning period, the local government shall use the annual increments
provided in the applicable forecast, and shall not adjust the forecast for the start-year
or for other years of the planning period except as provided in PRC’s interpolation
template described in OAR 577-050-0040.
(5) If a local government outside
the Metro boundary initiates a periodic review or any other legislative review of
its comprehensive plan that concerns an urban growth boundary or other matter authorized
by OAR 660-032-0040(2) after the Portland State University Population Research Center
issues a final population forecast for the local government, but prior to the issuance
of a final forecast by PRC in the subsequent forecasting cycle described in OAR
577-050-0040(7), the local government may continue its review using the forecast
issued in PRC’s previous forecasting cycle.
Stat. Auth.: ORS 197.040 &195.033(10)
Stats. Implemented: ORS 195.033,
195.036 & OL 2013 Ch. 574, Sec. 3
Hist.: LCDD 1-2015, f. &
cert. ef. 3-25-15
660-032-0030
Metro Area Population Forecasts
(1) Metro, in coordination with local governments
within its boundary, shall issue a coordinated population forecast for the entire
area within its boundary, to be applied by Metro and local governments within the
boundary as the basis for a change to a regional framework plan, comprehensive plan
or land use regulation, when such change must be based on or requires the use of
a population forecast.
(2) Metro shall allocate the
forecast to the cities and portions of counties within the Metro boundary for land
use planning purposes.
(3) In adopting its coordinated
forecast, Metro must follow applicable procedures and requirements in this rule
and ORS 197.610 to 197.650, and must provide notice to state agencies and all local
governments in the Metro area. The forecast must be adopted as part of the applicable
regional or local plan.
(4) The Metro forecast must
be developed using commonly accepted practices and standards for population forecasting
used by professional practitioners in the field of demography or economics. The
forecast must be based on current, reliable and objective sources and verifiable
factual information, and must take into account documented long-term demographic
trends as well as recent events that have a reasonable likelihood of changing historical
trends. Metro must coordinate with the PRC in the development and allocation of
its forecast.
(5) The population forecast
developed under the provisions of (1) through (4) of this rule is a prediction which,
although based on the best available information and methodology, should not be
held to an unreasonably high level of precision. For a forecast used as a basis
for a decision adopting or amending the Metro regional urban growth boundary submitted
to the Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD) under ORS 197.626,
the director of DLCD or the Land Conservation and Development Commission may approve
the forecast provided it finds that any failure to meet a particular requirement
of this rule is insignificant and is unlikely to have a significant effect on the
determination of long term needs for the Metro urban area under OAR 660-024-0040.
Stat. Auth.: ORS 197.040 &195.033(10)
Stats. Implemented: ORS 195.033,
195.036 & OL 2013 Ch. 574, Sec. 3
Hist.: LCDD 1-2015, f. &
cert. ef. 3-25-15
660-032-0040
Interim Forecasts
(1) If a local government outside the Metro
boundary initiates a periodic review or other legislative review of its comprehensive
plan that concerns an urban growth boundary or a matter authorized by section (2)
of this rule before the date the PRC issues a final population forecast for the
local government in the first forecasting cycle described in OAR 577-050-0040(7),
the local government may continue its review using the population forecast that
was acknowledged before the review was initiated, provided the forecast was:
(a) Adopted by the local government
not more than 10 years before the date of initiation, as a part of the comprehensive
plan, consistent with the requirements of ORS 195.034 and 195.036 as those sections
were in effect immediately before July 1, 2013, and
(b) Acknowledged as provided
in ORS 197.251 or 197.625 prior to the effective date of this rule.
(2) The authorization to use
the forecast described in section (1) applies only to a periodic review or a legislative
review of the comprehensive plan that concerns:
(a) An urban growth boundary
review or amendment as provided in Goal 14 and OAR 660, div 24;
(b) Economic development (Goal
9);
(c) Housing needs (Goal 10);
(d) Public facilities (Goal
11); or
(e) Transportation (Goal 12).
(3) For purposes of section
(1) of this rule, if the acknowledged forecast was adopted by the applicable county,
and if the forecast allocates population forecasts to the urban areas in the county
but has not been adopted by a particular city in that county, the city may apply
the allocated forecast as necessary for the purposes described in section (2) of
this rule.
(4) If the forecast is consistent
with sections (1)(a) and (1)(b) of this rule but does not provide a forecast for
the entire applicable planning period for a purpose described in section (2), the
local government may apply an extended forecast for such purpose. The extended forecast
shall be developed by applying the long term growth trend that was assumed in the
acknowledged forecast, for the particular planning area, to the current population
of the planning area.
(5) If the local government
initiates a periodic review or other legislative review that concerns an urban growth
boundary or other matter authorized by section (2) of this rule before the issuance
by PRC of a final population forecast for the local government, and if that review
would be based on a population forecast that was adopted and submitted to the department
prior to the effective date of this rule as provided in OAR 660-032-0000 (2), but
which is not acknowledged by the effective date of this rule, the local government
may continue its review using that forecast provided the forecast is acknowledged
prior to the local government’s adoption of any final land use decision or
periodic review task resulting from such review.
(6) If the local government
does not have a forecast that meets the requirements of sections (1)(a) and (1)(b)
or section (5) of this rule, the local government may adopt an interim forecast
for purposes described in section (2) of this rule. The interim forecast must be
based on the average annual (annualized) growth rate for the planning period in
the most recent population forecast for the county issued by the Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis (OEA), consistent with section (7) of this rule. The local government
shall adopt the interim forecast following the procedures and requirements in ORS
197.610 to 197.650 and shall provide notice to all local governments in the county.
(7) The interim forecast described
in section (6), for a particular planning area, must be developed by applying the
annualized growth rate in the most recent OEA forecast, to the current population
of the planning area.
(8) For purposes of this rule:
(a) “Annualized growth
rate” means the forecasted average annual (annualized) growth rate determined
from the most recent published OEA forecast, calculated from 2015 to the 5-year
time interval nearest the end of the planning period.
(b) “Apply the annualized
growth rate to the current population of the planning area” means to multiply
the current population of the planning area by annualized growth rate.
(c) “Current population
of the planning area” for a county means the estimated population of the county
issued by PRC for the year that the review described in section (1) of this rule
is initiated.
(d) “Current population
of the planning area” for an urban area means the PRC estimate of population
of the city at the time the review is initiated, plus the population for the area
between the urban growth boundary and the city limits as determined by the most
recent Decennial Census published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Stat. Auth.: ORS 197.040 &195.033(10)
Stats. Implemented: ORS 195.033,
195.036 & OL 2013 Ch. 574, Sec. 3
Hist.: LCDD 1-2015, f. &
cert. ef. 3-25-15

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