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Provisional Measure No. 2,046-34, Of 26 September 2000

Original Language Title: Medida Provisória nº 2.046-34, de 26 de Setembro de 2000

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Provisional Measure No. 2.046-34, of September 26, 2000.

Altera devices of the Laws 9,082, of July 25, 1995, 9,293, of July 15, 1996, 9,473, of July 22, 1997, 9,692, of July 27, 1998, and 9,811, of July 28, 1999, and 9,995, of July 25, 2000, which dispose of the guidelines for the drafting of the budget law for the 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, and 2001 financial years respectively.

THE PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC, in the use of the attribution that confers it on art. 62 of the Constitution, adopts the following Provisional Measure, with force of law:

Art. 1º The Law No. 9,082 of July 25, 1995, passes the following with the following amendments:

?Art. 14. ...................................................................................................................................

...........................................................................................................................................................

§ 3º Exceeds the willing in the caput of this Article the targeting, upon opening of additional credit, of counterpart resources for the coverage of expenses with personnel and social charges, where it is evidenced the impossibility of its original application.? (NR)

?Art. 18. Transfers of Union resources, which are consigned to the annual budget law, to states, Federal District or Municipalities, to any title, including financial aid and contributions, shall be carried out exclusively upon convenium, agreement, adjustment or other congenial instruments, in the form of the current legislation, re-salvaged those arising from resources originating in the allocation of revenue provided for in specific legislation and the repartitions of tax revenues and those intended for attend to the state of legally recognized public calamity upon ministerial act, and will depend on the benefited unit to substantiate, in the act of the original instrument's signature that:

.................................................................................................................................................? (NR)

?Art. 34. ...................................................................................................................................

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VIII-the delivery of resources to the Federated Units and its Municipalities, in the form and conditions detailed in the Annex to the Supplementary Act No. 87, of September 13, 1996;

IX-the Voluntary Desligation Program-PDV of civil servants of the Executive Power.

.................................................................................................................................................? (NR)

?Art. 44. ...................................................................................................................................

Single paragraph. The deadline provided in the caput of this article does not apply to the bill aimed at the early rescue, by the Union, of securitized credits, resulting from the discharge of debits of the Federal Railway Network S.A. -RFFSA and the extinct Brazilian Legion Foundation of Assistance, sub-rogates and assumed, respectively, together with the National Institute of Social Insurance-INSS.? (NR)

?Art. 49. ...................................................................................................................................

...........................................................................................................................................................

§ 4º Do not include at the predicted limit in the caput of this article the appropriations for the fulfillment of expenses with:

I-personnel and social charges;

II-payment of pension benefits borne by the National Social Insurance Institution;

III-payment of the debt service;

IV-payment of current expenses relating to the operationalization of the Single Health System;

V-the Official Credit Operations-Resources under Supervision of the Ministry of Finance;

VI-the National Civil Defense System;

VII-the Emergency Distribution Program of Food-PRODEA;

VIII-the sub-projects and subactivities that were running in 1995, financed with external resources and counterpart;

IX-the subprojects and sub-activities funded with donations;

X-the activity Credit for Reform Agrarian;

XI-payment to scholarships;

XII-payment of continuing benefit benefits (Law No. 8,742, of December 7, 1993) and development of poverty-faced actions;

XIII-payment of expenditure on food, within the scope of the Ministry of Education and Sport;

XIV-payment of salary allowance and expenditure to the account of resources directly raised, within the framework of the Fund of Amparo to Worker-FAT;

XV-payment of contractual commitments abroad.? (NR)

Art. 2º Law No. 9,293, of July 15, 1996, passes the vigour with the following changes:

?Art. 18. ...................................................................................................................................

...........................................................................................................................................................

§ 8º In exceptional character, for fulfillment of the requirements set out in points (?b? e?c? of the inciso II of this article, the values set out in the budget implementation report of which it deals with § 3º of the art may be used. 165 of the Constitution, pertaining to the fourth bimequestrian of the financial year 1997.

§ 9º For the fulfilment of the requirements laid down in points (?b? e?c? of the inciso II of this article, the constant values of the budget law for the financial year 1997 and its additional credits, approved by the Municipal Legislative Power until October 31, 1997, may also be used.? (NR)

?Art. 19. ...................................................................................................................................

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§ 3º Ressalvam-if still from the provisions of this Article the operations carried out within the framework of the Restructuring Support Program and the Fiscal Adjustment of States, as well as those regarding the reduction of the public sector presence in banking and financial activities.? (NR)

?Art. 34. ...................................................................................................................................

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§ 4º The annual budget law and its credits additional should also contemplate necessary appropriations for the fulfilment of the operations carried out within the framework of the Restructuring Support Program and the Fiscal Adjustment of States, as well as those regarding the reduction of the public sector presence in the bank financial activity.? (NR)

?Art. 35. ...................................................................................................................................

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V-the equalization of interest rates of the financing for exports, under the Export Financing Programme-PROEX, provided for in art. 2º of Law No. 8,187, of 1991, owing to the securities to contain currency update clauses;

...........................................................................................................................................................

IX-the delivery of resources to the Federated Units and Municipalities, in the form and conditions detailed in the Annex to Supplementary Law No. 87, of September 13, 1996;

X-the delivery of financial resources to States and their Municipalities and to the Federal District, in compliance with the relevant legislation.

.................................................................................................................................................? (NR)

?Art. 53. ...................................................................................................................................

...........................................................................................................................................................

§ 4º .........................................................................................................................................

...........................................................................................................................................................

XV-the National School Food Program- PNAE.? (NR)

Art. 3º Law No. 9,473, of July 22, 1997, passes the vigour with the following changes:

?Art. 26. ...................................................................................................................................

...........................................................................................................................................................

§ 9º In exceptional character, for fulfillment of the requirements set out in points (?b? e?c? of the inciso II of this article, the values set out in the last published report of budget implementation of which it treats § 3º of the art may be used. 165 of the Constitution.

§ 10. For the fulfillment of the requirements laid down in points (?b? e?c? of the inciso II of this article, the figures set out in the budget law for the financial year 1998 and their additional credits, approved by the Legislative Power, may also be used.

§ 11. The demands that it treats the inciso I of this article do not apply to the Municipalities with up to fifty thousand inhabitants.? (NR)

?Art. 27. ...................................................................................................................................

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§ 2º Risse of the provisions of this article operations carried out under the Exports Financing Program-PROEX, the remaining financing operations carried out with mini and small rural producers and credit operations under the amparo of the Revitalization Program of Agrilivestock Production Cooperatives-RECOOP, as well as financing for acquisition, by federal authorities and public companies, of agri-livestock products intended for the implementation of the Minimum Price Guarantee Policy, of which it treats the Decree-Law No. 79, of December 19, 1966, and the formation of stocks, pursuant to art. 31 of Law No. 8,171 of January 17, 1991, which are expected to have its execution effective through the Integrated Financial Administration System-SIAFI.

.................................................................................................................................................? (NR)

?Art. 31. ...................................................................................................................................

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VI-funding to states and the District Federal intended for actions complementary to the implantation of the devices of Law No. 9,424, of December 24, 1996;

VII-credit operations under the Amparo of RECOOP.

...........................................................................................................................................................

§ 4º The loans and financing for costing and agri-livestock investments intended for the mini and small rural producers and their cooperatives and associations, to the formation of regulatory and strategic stockpiles, obeyed the limits and conditions laid down in law and by the Monetary Council National, the funding to the states and the Federal District under Law No. 9,424 of 1996 and the credit operations under the Amparo of the RECOOP could be lasered also with resources not provided for in § 1º.? (NR)

?Art. 44 ....................................................................................................................................

...........................................................................................................................................................

XI-funding to states and the District Federal intended for actions complementary to the implantation of the devices of Law No. 9,424, of 1996;

XII-credit operations under the amparo of RECOOP.

.................................................................................................................................................? (NR)

?Art. 59. The additional appropriations bill bills will have as a deadline for forwarding to the National Congress the date of November 10, 1998.? (NR)

Art. 4º Law No. 9,692, of July 27, 1998, passes the vigour with the following changes:

?Art. 28. ...................................................................................................................................

...........................................................................................................................................................

§ 2º Risse of the provisions of this article operations carried out under the Export Financing Program-PROEX, and the remaining financing operations carried out with mini and small rural producers and credit operations under the amparo of the Revitalization Program of Agrilivestock Production Cooperatives-RECOOP, as well as financing for acquisition, by federal authorities and public companies, of agri-livestock products intended for the implementation of the Minimum Price Guarantee Policy, of which it treats the Decree-Law No. 79, of December 19, 1966, and the formation of stocks, pursuant to art. 31 of Law No. 8,171 of January 17, 1991, which should have its implementation effective through the Integrated Financial Administration System-SIAFI.

§ 3º Ressalwere still from the provisions of this article the operations carried out within the framework of the Restructuring Support Program and the Fiscal Adjustment of the States, the assumption and refinancing of Municipalities ' debt, as well as those regarding the reduction of the public sector presence in banking and financial activities.? (NR)

?Art. 33. ...................................................................................................................................

...........................................................................................................................................................

VII-credit operations under the amparo of the RECOOP.

...........................................................................................................................................................

§ 3º .........................................................................................................................................

...........................................................................................................................................................

IV-the credit operations under the amparo of the RECOOP.? (NR)

?Art. 48. ...................................................................................................................................

...........................................................................................................................................................

X-the credit operations under the amparo of the RECOOP.

.................................................................................................................................................? (NR)

?Art. 60. ...................................................................................................................................

...........................................................................................................................................................

§ 2º Case the proposed changes are not passed, or are partially, up to two hundred and seventy days after the sanction of the annual budget law, so as not to allow the integralisation of the expected resources, the appropriations to the account of the said resources shall be cancelled, by decree, observed the following criteria, for mandatory sequential application and linear cancellation, until the required value for each source of revenue is completed:

.................................................................................................................................................? (NR)

Art. 5º Law No. 9,811, of July 28, 1999, passes the vigour with the following changes:

?Art. 18. The drafting of the project, the approval and implementation of the 2000 budget law should take into account the achievement of a primary surplus of at least R$ 30,500,000,000.00 (thirty billion and five hundred million reais) in the Fiscal Budgets, of the Social Security and Federal State-owned enterprises.

.................................................................................................................................................? (NR)

?Art. 25. ...................................................................................................................................

...........................................................................................................................................................

§ 2º .........................................................................................................................................

...........................................................................................................................................................

III-in the inciso VII, the public safety actions of the state policemen, in the terms of the caput of the art. 144 of the Federal Constitution.

.................................................................................................................................................? (NR)

?Art. 61. ...................................................................................................................................

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Single paragraph. The deployment of the staff cadres and their remunerative levels of the Regulatory Agencies is conditional on the existence of financial and budgetary availabilities in each Agency.? (NR)

?Art. 84. ...................................................................................................................................

...........................................................................................................................................................

§ 4º .........................................................................................................................................

...........................................................................................................................................................

Nineteenth-actions aimed at the celebrations of the V Centenary of the Discovery of Brazil.

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§ 6º Do not apply the provisions of § 3º of this article to the actions aimed at the commemorations of the V Centenary of the Brazilian Discovery.? (NR)

Art. 6º The Tax Goals and Projections and the demonstrative of the annual targets of the Fiscal Targets Annex, as well as the objectives of the monetary, creditworthiness and exchange rate policies of the Annex to the Message, of which it treats the Law No 9,995, of July 25, 2000, they go on to invigorate in the form of the Annexes to this Provisional Measure.

Single paragraph. In the following of the provisions of the caput, are the Attachments excluded?Memory and Calculation Methodology of annual Mets? e?Parameters and Projections for the Major Aggregates and Variables of Monetary Policies, Creditice and Currency? of Law No. 9,995, of 2000.

Art. 7º Stay the Union authorized to deliver resources to states, their Municipalities, and the Federal District, respected as limits to the total transfers the values set in the form of the item 5.8 of the Annex to Supplementary Law No. 87 of September 13, 1996, as well as the balance of budget allocations specifically intended for the purpose.

Single paragraph. Act of the State Ministers of the Farm and Planning, Budget and Management shall set the limits, criteria, deadlines and too much conditions for the delivery of the resources to States, their Municipalities, and the Federal District, and shall be signed beforehand the respective Protocol.

Art. 8º Ficam convalidated the acts practiced on the basis of the Provisional Measure No. 2.046-33, of August 26, 2000.

Art. 9º This Interim Measlant comes into force on the date of your publication.

Art. 10. Are they revoked the points?d? e?and? of the inciso II of the art. 18 of Law No. 9,293, of July 15, 1996, and?d? e?and? of the inciso II of the art. 26 of Law No. 9,473, of July 22, 1997.

Brasilia, September 26, 2000; 179º of Independence and 112º of the Republic.

FERNANDO HENRIQUE CARDOSo

Amaury Guilheme Bier

Marcus Vinicius Pratini de Moraes

Luciano Oliveira Patricio

Martus Tavares

ANNEX OF FISCAL GOALS

LEI DE BUDGET GUIDELINES

Goals and Fiscal Projections for the Central Government

(Art. 4º, § 1º of the Supplementary Law No. 101, of 2000)

Discrimination

2001

2002

2003

Value

%PIB

Value

%PIB

Value

%PIB

I. TOTAL REVENUE

269.123, 0

21.53

291,933.6

21.53

315,904.8

21.53

II. TOTAL EXPENSE

241,002.2

19.28

262.107, 2

19.33

289,497.5

19.73

III. PRIMARY RESULT (I-II)

28,120.8

-2.25

29,826.4

2.20

26,407.2

1.80

IV. NOMINAL RESULT

-17,200.0

-1.38

-5,100.0

-0.38

-7,900.0

-0.54

V. CENTRAL GOVERNMENT NET DEBT

360,900.0

27.85

374,800.0

26.61

393,300.0

25.88

R$ million average of 2000

Discrimination

2001

2002

2003

Value

%PIB

Value

%PIB

Value

%PIB

I. TOTAL REVENUE

254,236.5

21.53

265.677, 1

21.53

277,632.6

21.53

II. TOTAL EXPENSE

227,671.2

19.28

238.533, 3

19.33

254,424.6

19, 73

III. PRIMARY RESULT (I-II)

26,565.3

2.25

27.143, 8

2.20

23,208.0

1, 80

IV. NOMINAL RESULT

-16,248.6

-1.38

-4.641, 3

-0.38

-6,942.9

-0,54

V. CENTRAL GOVERNMENT NET DEBT

340,938.8

27.85

341.090, 5

26.61

345,651.3

25, 88

ANNEX FISCAL TARGETS

BUDGET GUIDELINES LAWS

Demonstratives of the annual goals

(Art. 4º, § 2º, inciso II, of the Supplementary Law No. 101, of 2000)

The Central Government's primary surplus target proposed for 2001, as presented in the attachment table, is from R$ 28.120, to 8 million, which equates to 2.25% of GDP considering an estimate of GDP of 2001 equal to R$ 1,249,813.09 million. This goal was defined in a manner consistent with the Fiscal Stability Programme (PEF), proposed initially in October 1998, introducing fundamental changes to the Country's fiscal regime. Jointly with the Work Agenda-structural measures and institutional changes that aim to give appropriate shape to fiscal decisions, procedures and practices in the future-, the Action Plan 1999-2001 has been established, where targets have been set primary public sector surplus consolidated at levels compatible with the stabilization of the debt-to-GDP ratio at the end of the triennial. The disruption in the growth trajectory of debt-to-GDP ratio is essential to ensure the decreasing trajectory of the interest rate, by viabilizing the resumption of economic growth with price stability. Depending on this goal, the targets for the triennial 1999-2001 are higher when compared both to the observed results and to the proposed targets for previous years, notably 1998. In any case, the target for 2001 was revised downward as a result of the strict fulfillment of the targets set for fiscal policy, as well as of the more favorable macroeconomic framework that has been redundant.

For the years 2002 and 2003, the targets set out here provide for the maintenance of the fiscal effort, translated into the achievement of primary surpluses that allow debt stabilization public as a proportion of GDP. That way, the targets here proposed were set at 2.2% and 1.8% of GDP, respectively, for 2002 and 2003 for the Central Government. These values should be seen as indicative, and may be reviewed depending on the trajectory of the indebtedness itself and the variables that determine it. The Central Government's target for 2002 is compatible with the announced goal of a primary surplus for the consolidated public sector of 2.7% of GDP for that year.

Given the primary surplus, the trajectory of the debt-to-GDP ratio is basically determined by the evolution of the exchange rate, the real interest rate, and the real growth rate of the economy. For a given exchange rate, the debt growth will be higher the higher the real interest rate and the lower the real growth rate of the economy, for the same primary result. With a backdrop of international crisis and diminished external credibility, the Brazilian economy lived, in 1998 and 1999, a period of high real interest rates and low growth rate (in 1999, despite low, it was substantially higher that most of the forecasts, showing an excellent response from the Brazilian economy to the change of currency regime). For the next few years, the macroeconomic scenario foresees continued interest rate drop and sustained recovery from economic growth, which, in conjunction with meeting the targets by 2001, will enable it to set smaller targets for 2002 and 2003, without compromising the desired trajectory of the debt-to-GDP ratio. It is important to remember that the very stabilization of the debt-to-GDP collaborates for the reduction of the required real interest rates and subsequent primary surplus required. Thus, the initial fiscal effort realized during the 1999-2001 triennial is key to enabling the definition of smaller targets of primary surpluses for future exercises.

In relation to the projected levels of revenue and expenditure, a small increase in GDP revenue was considered in 2001 in relation to the 2000 Budget Bill of Law. For 2002 and 2003, a stability of the fundraiser is projected as a proportion of GDP. The level of expenditure has been adjusted in such a way as to ensure the achievement of the proposed primary surpluses.

The nominal result was established from the primary surplus targets and nominal interest hypotheses and exchange rate. The projections for the nominal results, in turn, point to small deficits: 1.38, 0.38 and 0.54% of GDP in 2001, 2002 and 2003, respectively. At the same time, the net debt of the Central Government presents a small reduction in the period: from

Variables macroeconomics used in the projection

2001

2002

2003

Exchange rate (R$/$-ten)

1.83

1, 89

1.92

Rate nominal interest rate (%aa)

14.2

12, 28

11.26

GDP (real growth%)

4.5

4, 5

4.5

Skeletons / Privatization

0

7, 04

7.58

Central Government Net Debt (% GDP)

27.85

26, 61

25.88

Central Government Primary Result (% GDP)

2.25

2, 2

1.8

Nominal Central Government Result (% GDP)

-1.38

-0.38

-0.54

27.85% of the GDP in 2001 for 25.88% of GDP in 2003.

The net debt of the Central Government is equal to its gross debt (including the monetary base), net of its financial assets. The total net debt of the Central Government is measured by the concept of competence (including accrued and unpaid interest) for the internal component of the debt, and by the concept of interest due (contractual competence) for the external component of the debt.

It is important to highlight that both nominal deficit and debt values depend directly on the macroeconomic hypotheses considered. A critical variable for the determination of the debt stock is the exchange rate, given that about 40% percent of the public sector's gross debt depends directly on it. So, an eventual devaluation of the exchange rate may represent a greater level of debt for the next few years. Too much, the disclosure of the implied deflator of the 1999 GDP could bring in variations in the debt-to-GDP ratio, as it affects its denominator. In 1999, due to the currency change there was a significant discrepancy between the IGP-DI and the implied deflator of GDP. In the projections carried out above, an estimate of the GDP deflator was used, which can differentiate itself from the number to be disclosed by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Finally, the various contingent liabilities presented in the Fiscal Risks Annex may also contribute to an increase in the debt stock. In this way, although the basic scenario would behold a drop of the debt-to-GDP ratio, the definition of the primary surplus targets took into account the possibility of occurrence of the various factors mentioned above.

The net debt trajectory shows, thus, that the proposed targets for the primary outcome, jointly with the projected scenario, are sufficient to impede growth of debt, maintaining a responsible fiscal policy.

ANNEX TO MESSAGE

BUDGET GUIDELINES ACT

Objectives of monetary policies, creditworthiness and currency

(Art. 4º, § 4º, of the Supplementary Law No. 101, of 2000)

The goals of Brazilian economic policy for the next few years follow being the promotion of the economic growth with price stability. The convergence of fiscal, monetary, creditworthiness and currency policies and the continuity of structural reforms are essential for achieving these goals.

The adjustment of public accounts, particularly after 1998, represented a decisive step in the construction of solid foundations for recovery of growth. It is this adjustment that ensures, ultimately, the consolidation of monetary stabilization, the basis for sustained growth and for the progressive improvement of the living conditions of the Brazilian population. The rigorous fulfillment of fiscal targets and the structural changes that come with being obtained with the indispensable participation of the National Congress are decisive elements for the revival environment of Brazilian development that has already begun to take place manifest. These elements sidestep new speculative pressures against Real, favor falling domestic interest rate and increased domestic savings, by reducing the need for public sector funding.

On the basis of the convergence process for a macroeconomic equilibrium situation, with expressive growth rates, is the successful execution of the Program of Fiscal Stability. In effect, the primary result of the consolidated public sector of 1999 reached a surplus of 3.13% of GDP, fulfilling not only the fiscal target set for the year, but also ensuring compliance with fiscal targets by the fifth quarter consecutive. With this, the initial step has been taken for a sustainable trajectory of the net debt-to-GDP ratio. For the year 2000, the budget proposal set a primary surplus of 2.6% percent of GDP for the Central Government, in line with the primary surplus of 3.25% percent of the established GDP for the consolidated public sector. And for the 2001 financial year, the target set out in this Annex for the Central Government is 2.25% of GDP, which equates to R$ 28.120, to 8 million for an estimate of GDP of 2001 equal to R$ 1,249,813.09 million.

As of the beginning of 1999, Brazil opted for a free-floating regime of the exchange rate, and therefore no commitment to the maintenance of any level or track of fluctuation for the exchange rate. The introduction of this regime has allowed to remove balance sheet restrictions from payments that have manifold themselves with the worsening of external conditions following the Asian crisis. The positive effects of currency change were soon felt in 1999: the current account deficit was reduced from 33, to 6 billion in 1998 to US$ 24, to 4 billion in 1999. In addition, this deficit was largely covered by the direct external investment inflow, which reached the record level of US$ 30 billion in 1999. The trade deficit in twelve months was reduced from US$ 6, to 6 billion occurred in 1998 to a low of US$ 400 million at the end of the first quarter of 2000, indicating that last year's currency devaluation and growth of the economy worldwide are surfacing the desired effect on Brazilian external accounts. Exports, benefited from the relative price change and the earned gains of competiveness, continue their growth trajectory verified since the second half of last year, reducing our external need for financing.

With the change in the exchange regime, monetary policy has gained greater freedom, by moving forward by the effects of the level of activity and of the exchange on the inflation rate, in place of being determined, as in the previous arrangement, by the need to viabilize the flow of external resources necessary to the sustained exchange rate support. Monetary policy has thus become a key element for the coordination of expectations, this being the fundamental reason for the adoption of the inflationary target regime.

In the coming years, in addition to the commitment to free fluctuation of the exchange rate, the Government intends to continue to steer monetary policy to ensure the achievement of the inflationary targets. Since July 1999, the formal inflation targeting regime has been instituted, and the annual targets for the consumer price index (IPCA) have been set at 8% for 1999, 6% in 2000 and 4% in 2001, admitted to the variation of two percentage points to above and down, in such a way as to accommodate seasonal or episodic variations. In June of this year, considering recent inflation results, as well as the goal of maintaining a downward trajectory of the convergence of Brazilian inflation to a rate equivalent to that of the international economy, it was set a target of 3.5% for 2002, also conceded the variation of two percentage points up or down. From the formal point of view, it is an integral part of the new systematic conduct of monetary policy that implies scope, by the Central Bank of Brazil, of the inflation target set by the Government. The regime constitutes the most appropriate strategy, in the current context, for the maintenance of price stability, by leaving clear the means used by the Central Bank of Brazil to achieve this goal. At the same time, it evidences the constraints on the operation of monetary policy, increasing the degree of the Government's commitment to the price stabilization process.

The present tax adjustment, the most favorable external conditions and the new currency regime viabilize a decreasing trajectory for the internal interest rate. In the coming years, further declines in real interest rates can be expected, giving continuity to the movement started in March 1999. It is up to registering, in that respect, that the basic interest rate (SELIC) has reduced, in real terms, from 33.98% to 12.65% between March 1999 and March 2000, using inflation projected for the following twelve months.

In relation to credit policy, the Government's objective has been the expansion of the volume of creditworthy operations, as well as the reduction of the costs of financial intermediation. Several measures have been adopted in this direction, such as reduction of compulsory pick-up on spot deposits (two reductions in six months), the elimination of this mandatory on time deposits, the reduction of IOF's aliquot incident on credit operations to physical persons, in addition to the creation of the Banking Credit Cédule, title arising from credit operation, of more simple and effective judicial tramits.

As a consequence of the measures taken and of a better expectation as to the economic scenario, an increase in the credit volume is already observed, in addition to a decrease in the bank spread. However, it should be remembered that the lasting effects of such measures are likely to occur in the medium and long term. Still, the desired elevation of the credit / GDP ratio is expected to come to fruition in a sustained manner, so that the credit for consumption accompanies the expansion of productive investments. In this way, the maintenance of credit expansion, as well as the decrease in the cost of financial intermediation will continue to be macroeconomic policy objective, so as to become the credit an important channel of policy transmission monetary, with key role for the resumption of economic growth.

The grid of parameters adopted in the establishment of fiscal targets is reproduced in the frame below and provides the basic parameters with which it is working for the next few years, mainly with regard to exchange rate hypotheses and interest rate.

Macroeconomics parameters used in the projection

2001

2002

2003

Exchange rate (R$/$-ten)

1, 83

1, 89

1, 92

Rate rate nominal (% aa)

14, 2

12, 28

11.26

GDP (growth real%)

4, 5

4, 5

4, 5

It is important to emphasize that they address working hypothesis or scenarios for the coming years, and not of policy goals or commitments economic.